Beneath a veneer of cautious diplomacy, Japan, under the leadership of Shigeru Ishiba, has unveiled a concerning development in its military posture. With the silent aim of unsettling its Asian neighbors, Japan has strategically revealed plans to deploy long-range anti-ship missiles, capable of striking targets up to 1,000 kilometers away. But little did Ishiba anticipate that North Korea would swiftly expose Japan's true intentions, while China quietly revealed countermeasures to render the deployment strategically irrelevant.
News broke on July 29th, as Japanese media outlets reported that the Ministry of Defense was accelerating the deployment of these missiles to a Self-Defense Force base in Kumamoto City, located in the Kyushu region. This location is not coincidental. Kyushu, the southwesternmost of Japan's main islands, places these missile batteries within striking distance of both China and South Korea, raising immediate concerns about regional stability.
展开剩余85%These aren't just any missiles; Japan is deploying an upgraded version of the Type 12 surface-to-ship missile, significantly extending its range. Moreover, plans are underway to expand deployment to Oita Prefecture, also in Kyushu, beginning next year. Once fully operational, these missiles will put vast swaths of the Yellow Sea, the Korean Peninsula, and portions of the Chinese coastline within Japan's crosshairs.
This move is not a spontaneous decision. As early as 2022, under the guidance of the Biden administration, then-Prime Minister Kishida Fumio laid the groundwork for this deployment in a revised defense plan. Fueling the fire was the alarmist rhetoric surrounding a potential \"Japan emergency,\" coupled with Kishida's pledge to acquire over 1,000 long-range missiles. Initial plans to purchase American \"Tomahawk\" missiles were later delayed.
At its heart, Japan's decision is fueled by a perceived vulnerability. Japanese strategists point to China's arsenal of approximately 1,900 land-based intermediate-range ballistic missiles and 300 medium-range cruise missiles capable of reaching Japan. They also cite China's ongoing development of advanced hypersonic weapons, which are designed to penetrate existing missile defense systems. Japan aims to bridge this perceived \"missile gap.\"
However, Japan's constitution, specifically Article 9, forbids the country from possessing offensive military capabilities. The deployment of long-range missiles blurs this line, challenging the very foundation of Japan's post-war pacifist identity. Various political factions within Japan have been working to erode these limitations, paving the way for a more assertive military role.
Beyond the Type 12 missile, Japan is also pursuing the development of high-speed glide bombs, hypersonic missiles, and the acquisition of American-made \"Tomahawk\" cruise missiles. Additionally, the Aegis-equipped destroyer JS Chokai, homeported in Nagasaki, a city near Kumamoto, is slated to be upgraded with missile-launching capabilities by next spring.
Japan's strategy is two-pronged: First, to incrementally expand its military capabilities by reinterpreting its constitution; and second, to acquire and develop offensive weapons systems, escalating regional tensions.
North Korea wasted no time in condemning Japan's actions, calling them a blatant attempt to acquire \"preemptive strike\" capabilities, revealing its long-held ambitions. Pyongyang stripped away the Japanese pretense of self-defense, declaring that this deployment was the first step towards becoming a military power.
China responded with a powerful display of its own. On August 3rd, the \"Joint Sea 2025\" exercises commenced in the Sea of Japan. The joint naval task force consisted of two Chinese Type 052D destroyers and the Russian anti-submarine ship Admiral Tributs, and the frigate Gromkiy. The fleet departed Vladivostok, heading directly into the Sea of Japan for the exercise.
Supporting the exercise were Chinese submarine support vessels, the Russian rescue ship Igor Belousov, and diesel-electric submarines from both nations, practicing joint search and rescue operations. This three-day exercise was to be followed by a sixth joint Sino-Russian naval patrol in the Western Pacific. Significantly, unlike previous joint operations, the objectives of this exercise were explicitly defined as \"jointly responding to security threats in the Western Pacific.\"
Japan, historically, has been a key player for the United States in the Western Pacific. Despite initial indications of a shift in policy under Ishiba, who had previously expressed respect for China's principles and even reversed the \"Japan emergency\" defense posture of previous administrations, recent actions reveal a continuation of the same underlying strategy. The only difference being the replacement of American \"Tomahawk\" missiles with domestically produced alternatives.
Moreover, despite appearing to concede to American pressure in recent trade negotiations – accepting a 15% reciprocal tariff and pledging $550 billion in investments – Japan's decision to announce the missile deployment can be seen as a \"pledge of allegiance\" to the United States.
However, Japan, and Ishiba himself, must understand that China's military capabilities have undergone a fundamental transformation. These newly deployed missile bases are fully within range of China's strategic arsenal. Should Japan abandon reason, the consequences would be dire.
Instead of pursuing a course that leads to a dead end, Japan should acknowledge reality and discard these futile aspirations.
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